Seeding occurred over a wide window this season but is now complete. Early sown crops are developing rapidly following warm conditions in late May and early June, increasing concern over the potential for frost damage in spring.
Given crops are now established, grain production for 2023–24 is estimated to be 8.8 million tonnes, based on the core assumption that crop yields will be close to the 10-year average.
While overall there has been no substantial change to the crop mix for the 2023–24 season, the gradual reduction in the barley area experienced in recent seasons continues, mainly replaced by wheat along with a slight increase in the lentil area as more growers explore this crop as a rotation option.
The Bureau of Meteorology has issued an El Nino alert for the coming season with a forecast of a low to very-low chance of exceeding median rainfall during winter and early spring. Nonetheless, any related concern is being offset by good subsoil moisture levels.
Slugs have been a significant problem in some districts causing canola establishment issues despite strong baiting programs. Growers in some areas are on alert following early reports of wheat powdery mildew, but no stripe rust has been reported. Low to moderate mice populations have not caused widespread damage at this point.
Autumn pasture growth has been strong with good feed levels into the winter months and stock is in good condition. Concerns over beef and lamb price outlooks are influencing forward planning with scaling back of livestock enterprises a likely outcome.
For more information, see Crop and pasture reports.