There is significant pressure on primary producers in South Australia. Production can vary considerably from one year to the next due to climate. For example, in low rainfall grain producing regions, 80% of the profit is typically made from the best three years in ten, while a loss is often the result from the worst three years in ten. This is reflected in the recent grain harvests in South Australia. Our worst cereal harvest in decades was just 2.9 million tonnes in 2006–07, compared with our best ever of 9.3 million tonnes in 2001–02.

It has been a key challenge for producers to assess if a good or bad year is likely so they can maximise profits in the good years and minimise losses in the bad. This challenge is exacerbated by uncertainty about how climate extremes and average conditions will change as a result of climate change.

The demand for our agricultural exports has generally increased over the last two decades with increasing demand for food internationally. Currently the global population is around six billion and it is expected to grow to around nine billion by 2020. The demand for food will therefore increase, with export of cereals and meat expected to double by 2020 (22). Furthermore, farms today are fewer and larger than 20 years ago, perhaps partially due to climate variability, but also due to the pursuit of economies of scale as a means of decreasing costs (18).

Considering all of these factors, primary producers need to know how to best adapt the management of their agricultural enterprises for climate variability, whilst factoring in long term climate. It is not just the average projected long-term change that is of concern; understanding and adapting to changing climate extremes is a major issue.

Recently many organisations have become aware of the issue of climate change. However, once farmers have been convinced that climate change is real, there has been little information about what they can do to adapt to this change.

This guide presents a systematic approach to risk management that attempts to remedy this situation.

Planning for climate change

Two aspects of managing the risks to agriculture associated with our variable and changing climate are considered within this guide:

• Managing for short term climate variability and change
• Managing for change in the longer term.

Farmers have always had to cope with variability between seasons, but now, greater extremes in seasonal variation are projected. In these circumstances, seasonal forecasts will become even more important for managers who need to make decisions about the balance of their activities. Examples of responses to advance warning of seasonal conditions might include changes in the area sown to crops, modifications to stocking rates or variation of fodder conservation and utilisation strategies.

Farmers will also need to assess their current enterprises in light of the threats posed by climate change in the longer term. The responses of managers to projected trends may go as far as a change in the nature of the enterprise. For example, a change from cropping to livestock might be required as seasonal conditions for reliable cropping decline.

The procedures used in assessment, planning and response to change are known as risk management.

In this Guide

This guide will help you to better plan for short and longer term climate change challenges and opportunities in agriculture by providing you with a simplified background on

• Greenhouse emissions
• Climate change trends
• Climate change projections
• Climate change impacts on agriculture
• Climate change mitigation and adaptation in agriculture.

The Future

Scientific knowledge and understanding of climate change is developing rapidly. So too, is our awareness of the impacts and consequences of climate change on our farms and, of course, on other areas of our lives and businesses. Further details are provided in the references and reading list at the back of the Guide, particularly the CSIRO Report by Suppiah and others (6). The Australian Greenhouse Office, Canberra, is especially useful with information and advice in printed publications and on-line at www.greenhouse.gov.au/agriculture/index.html.

Chapter one>